52-Year Climate Analysis Highlights Growing Heat Stress in Punjab and Haryana

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The growing threat of heat across Punjab, Haryana and other parts of northwest India extends beyond rising temperatures alone. Researchers say that extreme daytime heat, humid conditions and the increasing intensity of heatwaves are becoming significant concerns across the region.

A study published in the International Journal of Climatology in 2026 analyzed changes in climate extremes across the Indian subcontinent using weather data collected between 1971 and 2022. The research assessed long-term trends through a Modified Climate Extremes Index (CEI), a tool designed to track various extreme weather conditions over time.

According to the study’s available findings, extreme daytime temperatures, humid heat and heatwave intensity are among the most important concerns in northwest India, including Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi and western Uttar Pradesh. The research also noted that in several years after 2000, the share of the affected area experiencing extreme daytime heat was between 15 and 20 percent or higher.

Researchers clarified that this figure refers to the proportion of the affected area and does not indicate a 15 to 20 percent increase in temperature itself.

Study Examined Climate Extremes Beyond Average Temperatures

Climate change is often discussed in terms of rising average temperatures. However, experts note that average figures alone do not fully capture climate-related risks. Regions may experience changes in the frequency of very hot days, extended heatwaves and humid heat events even when average temperature increases appear moderate.

To better understand these changes, researchers used the Modified Climate Extremes Index, which evaluates various indicators related to temperature and rainfall within a structured framework. The objective was to identify long-term trends in extreme climate events.

The study summary references seven climate indicators, including extreme daytime heat, humid heat, heatwave intensity and drought-like conditions. However, the publicly available details do not fully specify all seven indicators or the exact methods used to calculate them.

Why Northwest India Deserves Special Attention

Although Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi and western Uttar Pradesh differ in geography, weather patterns and population characteristics, understanding heat-related risks remains important across the region.

Agriculture, irrigation, urban expansion and outdoor occupations all make these areas particularly sensitive to extreme heat events. Researchers emphasize that evaluating changing heat patterns can help inform planning and preparedness measures.

Impact of Higher Daytime Temperatures

Extreme daytime heat can expose individuals working in fields, construction sites, roads and open areas to prolonged periods of high temperatures. People's experience of heat is influenced not only by temperature but also by sunlight exposure, wind conditions and local environmental factors.

Studying trends in extremely hot days can help authorities identify areas and periods where heat protection measures may be needed most.

Humid Heat Adds Another Layer of Risk

The study highlights that heat-related discomfort and health risks are not determined by temperature alone. High humidity can reduce the body's ability to cool itself through sweating, making people feel hotter even when temperatures are not exceptionally high.

Because of this interaction between humidity and temperature, researchers identified humid heat as an important component in assessing climate extremes.

Heatwave Intensity Remains a Major Concern

Heatwaves involve periods of unusually high temperatures lasting several consecutive days. Their impact depends not only on peak temperatures but also on their duration and how much temperatures decline during the night.

When relief from heat is limited, maintaining normal body temperature can become more difficult. Researchers therefore stress the importance of examining heatwave duration and intensity rather than focusing solely on daily maximum temperatures.

Understanding the Post-2000 Findings

The study noted that in several years after 2000, more than 15 to 20 percent of the assessed area experienced extreme daytime heat conditions.

Researchers caution against interpreting this figure as a measure of temperature increase. Instead, it represents the proportion of the area affected by extreme heat. Available information does not specify the exact years, geographical boundaries or calculation basis used for this percentage, and it should not be assumed to apply uniformly across all districts of northwest India.

Possible Implications for Agriculture, Water and Cities

Agriculture and Irrigation

Given the importance of farming and irrigation in northwest India, changing heat patterns could influence crop growth and water requirements. However, the actual impact depends on factors such as crop type, growth stage, soil conditions, irrigation availability and local weather.

Researchers suggest integrating climate risk assessments with agricultural advisories, irrigation planning and localized weather forecasts.

Water Availability

Higher temperatures can increase water demand for agricultural, domestic and urban use. Effective water management may therefore become increasingly important.

At the same time, experts note that water scarcity cannot be attributed to temperature alone. Rainfall patterns, groundwater use, storage capacity and demand levels also play major roles.

Urban Heat Challenges

Cities face additional heat-related challenges because of concrete and asphalt surfaces, building density, vehicle emissions and limited green spaces. These factors can influence local temperatures, causing heat conditions to vary even within different parts of the same city.

Researchers say more detailed urban-level temperature monitoring and location-specific planning could improve understanding of heat risks in urban environments.

How the Study Was Conducted

The research was carried out by six scientists, including Thota Mohan of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) and M. Rajeevan of Atria University.

Published in 2026 in the International Journal of Climatology, the study analyzed temperature and rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) covering the period from 1971 to 2022.

Researchers used the Mann-Kendall statistical method to identify long-term trends in climate extremes. The method is used to determine whether a particular indicator shows an increasing or decreasing trend over time. However, it does not establish the causes behind those changes. Additional analyses are required to understand the roles played by meteorological, geographical and human factors.

Key Areas Requiring Future Action

According to available details from the study, future efforts should focus on improved weather monitoring, stronger coordination between sectors and climate-informed planning.

The study highlights several priority areas:

• Improved local-level monitoring of heat and humidity variations in urban and rural areas.
• Timely communication of weather forecasts and heatwave warnings.
• Better preparedness of healthcare systems during periods of extreme heat.
• Integration of climate information into agricultural and irrigation planning.
• Stronger coordination among weather, health, agriculture, water and urban development agencies.

Researchers indicate that such measures could help improve preparedness and reduce the risks associated with increasing climate extremes across northwest India.